Obligatory: SIR, THIS IS A CASINO. This isn't financial advice in any way shape or form. submitted by OhSoRefreshing to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] TLDR: This run is going to end with the cannabis stocks back down 50-80% or more from the levels they are at. $CRLBF is the real play here for the smart players that want USA exposure to the legislation. We just like the stocks now, not later. Ok, listen up normies. Yeah I'm talking to the newbies specifically because the OGs here already know everything I'm about to share, but your insufferable groupthink and movement mentality shit pissed me off enough to make a post. Don't post DD if you have no clue. Ask someone for help and take your ridicule until someone comes along to help you. I used to post weekly DD on Sunday here a couple of years ago before one of you literally contacted my wife IRL. Not even kidding. So I made a new account. This is my first contribution back and I'm going to try and ensure some of you don't blow your chance at massive gains here by explaining what is actually going on. CNBC and anybody telling you that this is just 'momentum' and 'sentiment' is lying to you. The hedge funds are playing these right along with us. Don't ask me for proof, this isn't Twitter. Reasons why they are playing with us:
So in response to all you posting "real DD" with why these companies are the best and you're going to hold to the moon and never sell: I'm over it -- I can tell instantly how uninformed you are when I read some poorly thought out DD about why CGC or TLRY or APHA is a long term play because they're talking about USA legislation. These are Canadian companies. Get your head back on straight. You're here for the trade and the bet, not for the fundamentals, and if that's it, then fine, ignore the rest of this post and pick an exit, and if not, read on so you don't hold more bags. This place has never been one to care for fundamentals, but let me talk some sense into you so you can post some gain porn and I can tell you to fuck off instead of you guys all yelling "MaNiPuLaTiOn ShOrT LaDdErS" Let's take a look at some of today's gainers: (changed tickers for automod avoidance) $USMJay - Penny stock, worth absolute nothing for a reason $SNDL - Up ridiculous amount, have a billion shares outstanding, just diluted them all the other day $TeeRTeeC - Terra Tech, they grow weed, from all indications, do it poorly $OhGeeEye - lol $HUGE - Probably the only one in the lot worth a YOLO on the chance they get an acquisition like GW Pharma did but they don't have the same product portfolio or prospects GW has. Now, if you're simply playing this to get in and get out, great for you. The people saying (and believing) "$SNDL $10 EOW! HOLD THE LINE" and stuff like this are just absolutely brand new normies and are clueless, do not listen to them. If you yolo'd on cheap calls in Dec/Jan, congrats, take your gains and don't be like the $GME bagholders. If you're investing in any of the names I just posted above, expect any money you put in to at some point in the next 12 months be worth approximately 20% of what it is worth now. Literally. They're far worse than the main bunch (CGC, CRON, ACB, TLRY, APHA) but the main bunch is nothing to write home about either. THIS IS WHAT IS REALLY HAPPENING:Tilray had 40% short interest. It's not $GME level, but it's pretty high. When the stock crested $40 it really started taking off, why though? Notice this week's FD option chain: https://preview.redd.it/kyqeiwljeug61.png?width=917&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c1b48e12518515f09582289bd7f8a4f47a09629 Tilray has a 95M share float, those 42 calls represent roughly 1.5M shares held as a hedge just by themselves. Previous to this run up, that represents roughly 5% of the average daily volume of the stock, BY ITSELF. Those are shares that until Monday can be considered removed from the float because they're held as a hedge. They may get loaned out to be shorted, but that will only speed up the squeeze here. The important part: Today (2/10/21) the stock fell hard after open down to around 44 and found massive support all the way back to up 66. The most sold front week call? $40/$42 strikes. Premium when I screen shotted this? $22.20. Stocks going to pin above $60 for awhile likely, unless people are stupid enough to buy the OTM calls, in which case, it may squeeze itself higher. Smart hedge funds are going to pile into this, sell you the calls, shove the price up to keep selling you calls, then watch them all evaporate worthless in one of the future weeks in the chain, dump back the shares to help shove the price down, oh and did I mention? They shorted the top. https://preview.redd.it/ivy78woneug61.png?width=392&format=png&auto=webp&s=0604940c09126dc6d5b96a9cc5f17e4013ae5d9d It's just another plain old stock acting as a derivative of the option chain gamma squeeze. That's it, with a bit of short squeeze thrown in there and a WHOLE BUNCH of WSB fomo. The shorts are covering and pushing up the volume, likely re-shorting on the way up, and then you have WSB fomo'ing in to round out the total: a massive volume of 200 million shares today. You've got people that think this thing will skyrocket to 500+ (and it may) but the stakes get higher and higher each ladder up you take and the moves become more violent and more likely it comes all the way back down in short time the quicker it goes up. Might it get there? Sure. But be prepare to take profits when it does because... ITS CALLED MEAN REVERSION. THIS CANT GO ON FOREVER.Not to mention, the moves you are seeing are in completely overvalued companies, with horrible fundamentals, and poor prospects.Oh what's that? CGC got some CBD treats for Martha, seems fitting that something ill is going on in this industry considering she went to prison for insider trading. If the dog treats get you excited about the stock, Martha belongs here more than you do. 200M shares today means people who were long term bag holders cashed out and the shares have turned over the float two times in two days. That also means the shorts have turned over and are now short again. It means the HFT firms are feasting on all of you. It means Citadel is making a pile on the spreads. What to take away: An amount of shares equal to the entire float has changed hands, or in other words, fewer reason for people to bag hold. Fewer people that have to hedge. Fewer people that have to cover. Fewer people to help stabilize any of these upper price tiers, and keep the price stable by holding, and more reason it's going to collapse sooner (or later). But, this IS a casino after all... Let's see what happened with TLRY last time this happened (oh, you're new here? Yeah, this isn't the first time):https://preview.redd.it/p652mvgreug61.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=d95f2b0ccf946717859bffb28601dfd29e999e0b Looks eerily familiar to something else recently. Last time this occurred it traded between $100 and $300 in a single week timeframe. For those of you that are new: THIS IS NOT NORMAL. STOCKS DO NOT ALWAYS DO THIS. You are in the infancy of a new age of trading, but people still know, fundamentals matter a whole lot more than everyone is leading on, and these valuations are getting extremely overextended. Eventually, in the first squeeze Tilray bled off until the pandemic hit and it piled down to $2.43 a share. At $2.43/share, I would have bought it. Even at $10/12/14. At these levels? You're just ultimately out of touch but I look forward to the loss porn. So in short, again: Sir, this is a casino. Timeline of events, and how to not become a bagholder:
THIS IS ALL JUST "SENTIMENT" BASED YOLOING BY THIS SUB. It has probably driven uneducated retail into the trades also - who will also become bag holders. Let me put this in big letters for those of you that can only read big font and use crayons: NONE OF THESE COMPANIES HAVE REAL USA MARKET EXPOSURE, THEY ARE CANADIAN COMPANIES. THEY DO NOT HAVE MARKET POSITIONING AND ARE NOT POISED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF US LEGALIZATION.IF ANYTHING: IT WILL HURT THEIR BOTTOM LINE AND SET BACK EARNINGS BECAUSE OF CAPEX AND CASH OUTFLOWS TO GET A POSITION IN THE MARKET AND SOME OF THEM WILL GO OUT OF BUSINESS BECAUSE OF IT, WHILE OTHERS WILL FALL OUT OF PROFITIABILITY TO ENTER THE MARKET AND COMPETE WITH THE REAL PLAYERS. Who are the real players? (Cresco $CRLBF and Curaleaf $CURLF - do your own DD or wait for a post next week\***************)* Conclusion: Nobody should plan on holding these long term. Don't let someone else hand you bags like I did this morning at open on the pop unless you plan to hand your bags off and find the next play. You likely will not time the top. Pick a place you're ready to exit the trade, exit the trade or slowly shave your position, close the graphs and don't fomo back in. Just be done with the trade afterwards. You're likely not a cannabis multi millionaire and will not be one, unless you were loaded to the brim with low cost calls from last summefall or unless you literally yolo'd $10M into one of these a few weeks ago, and in that case, you belong here, congrats on your gains and fuck you. THIS IS A SECTOFOMO SQUEEZE. AND IT WILL END. THIS IS NOT SENTIMENT AND CNBC IS TROLLING US WITH IT LIKE WE HAVE THE POWER. And if you think WE are the ones driving the price up, the hedge funds are definitely watching and playing and they can bring these down at will at almost any time they want. You're holding a lit molotov, the only question is: will you throw it before it blows up? The rest of you? Plz fuck off with you 20 shares @ $2 on Sundial, fuck off with the "HOLD THE LINE SNDL $10 EOW", fuck off with your fomo, and fuck off with the "movement" and "lets push this to the sky" stuff and most importantly don't post DD if you have zero clue what is going on. You know what "lets push this to the sky" sounds like? Market manipulation. We're not in this together, I literally handed one of you a bag to hold this morning and even if they go up for another month, eventually, that bags gonna be heavy and I ain't coming back for it. I ain't tipping you either. These prices are insanely high for these companies. The multiples are out of control, and if you buy in at these levels, well, best of luck, I hope it works out for you. I'm fighting the fomo of extended gains, and will continue to put my money elsewhere. SIR, THIS IS A CASINO.Positions: I had the meme stocks like you literally all of them minus ACB and CGC. I took gains and bought 500 shares of Cresco prob increasing to 1,000 tomorrow, and kept the rest off the table to pay my wife's boyfriend's rent.Disclaimer: I have Tilray puts I'm prepared to average down on and diamond hand like a real boss because this is coming back down. Edit: You know what I forgot to add? Some of the biggest holders, the cannabis ETFs and funds, you know what they did today? They trimmed their positions. And they will continue to do so because of fiduciary responsibility and when you de-concentrate shares into the retail's hands, the moves will get more and more finnicky and more and more violent. Edit 2: Some normie tried calling me out like I never saw this trade coming or am a hedge shill, https://imgur.com/a/asAVkiC - I had thousands of shares, these are just the trades from this month, and I'm not advocating a buy, I sold mostly all of them this morning except for adding Cresco back in. You want the gain numbers? You do the math, I'm not your math tutor, I sold like 6 minutes after open for most of them. I have Tilray puts for next week and will be buying a few months out at various strikes as it continues to climb. Yeah, I think these are coming back down in price sooner rather than later, that isn't extraordinary information for a common sense person. Edit 3: I'm getting piles of messages from people who used to follow my DD back in 2018/2019. Yes, it's the real SoRefreshing, proof: https://imgur.com/a/Pn5LqCe Edit 4: Eh don't request me with "What should I do with XX" be a big adult grown up and decide your own risk tolerance and exits. I responded to the first 10 or so. Now I have 100. I can't. I disabled chat messages. Edit 5: jesus with the awards go buy TSLA calls this is WSB not fb/twtr disclaimer: have TSLA calls Edit 6: Oh look, they're pinning it around the $42 strike. Go figure. |
https://v.redd.it/rrq7u8ga9ug61114416 points · WLH7M on /funny · Context
https://i.redd.it/191074fozqg61.jpg11 platinum awards · Jasper_Pail on /FortNiteBR · Context
Obligatory: SIR, THIS IS A CASINO. This isn't financial advice in any way shape or form.15 gold awards · OhSoRefreshing on /wallstreetbets · Context
TLDR: This run is going to end with the cannabis stocks back down 50-80% or more from the levels they are at. $CRLBF is the real play here for the smart players that want USA exposure to the legislation. We just like the stocks now, not later.
Ok, listen up normies.
Yeah I'm talking to the newbies specifically because the OGs here already know everything I'm about to share, but your insufferable groupthink and movement mentality shit pissed me off enough to make a post. Don't post DD if you have no clue. Ask someone for help and take your ridicule until someone comes along to help you.
I used to post weekly DD on Sunday here a couple of years ago before one of you literally contacted my wife IRL. Not even kidding. So I made a new account. This is my first contribution back and I'm going to try and ensure some of you don't blow your chance at massive gains here by explaining what is actually going on.
CNBC and anybody telling you that this is just 'momentum' and 'sentiment' is lying to you. The hedge funds are playing these right along with us. Don't ask me for proof, this isn't Twitter. Reasons why they are playing with us:
That's all you need to know.
- When there is money to be made, hedge funds and HFT funds are there before you
- The floats are so small on these they can take sizable positions on both sides and stand to have massive gains, all the while handing you guys the bags.
So in response to all you posting "real DD" with why these companies are the best and you're going to hold to the moon and never sell:
I'm over it -- I can tell instantly how uninformed you are when I read some poorly thought out DD about why CGC or TLRY or APHA is a long term play because they're talking about USA legislation. These are Canadian companies. Get your head back on straight. You're here for the trade and the bet, not for the fundamentals, and if that's it, then fine, ignore the rest of this post and pick an exit, and if not, read on so you don't hold more bags.
This place has never been one to care for fundamentals, but let me talk some sense into you so you can post some gain porn and I can tell you to fuck off instead of you guys all yelling "MaNiPuLaTiOn ShOrT LaDdErS"
Let's take a look at some of today's gainers:
(changed tickers for automod avoidance)
$USMJay - Penny stock, worth absolute nothing for a reason
$SNDL - Up ridiculous amount, have a billion shares outstanding, just diluted them all the other day
$TeeRTeeC - Terra Tech, they grow weed, from all indications, do it poorly
$OhGeeEye - lol
$HUGE - Probably the only one in the lot worth a YOLO on the chance they get an acquisition like GW Pharma did but they don't have the same product portfolio or prospects GW has.
Now, if you're simply playing this to get in and get out, great for you. The people saying (and believing) "$SNDL $10 EOW! HOLD THE LINE" and stuff like this are just absolutely brand new normies and are clueless, do not listen to them. If you yolo'd on cheap calls in Dec/Jan, congrats, take your gains and don't be like the $GME bagholders.
If you're investing in any of the names I just posted above, expect any money you put in to at some point in the next 12 months be worth approximately 20% of what it is worth now. Literally. They're far worse than the main bunch (CGC, CRON, ACB, TLRY, APHA) but the main bunch is nothing to write home about either.
THIS IS WHAT IS REALLY HAPPENING:
Tilray had 40% short interest. It's not $GME level, but it's pretty high. When the stock crested $40 it really started taking off, why though? Notice this week's FD option chain:
https://preview.redd.it/kyqeiwljeug61.png?width=917&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c1b48e12518515f09582289bd7f8a4f47a09629
Tilray has a 95M share float, those 42 calls represent roughly 1.5M shares held as a hedge just by themselves. Previous to this run up, that represents roughly 5% of the average daily volume of the stock, BY ITSELF. Those are shares that until Monday can be considered removed from the float because they're held as a hedge. They may get loaned out to be shorted, but that will only speed up the squeeze here.
The important part: Today (2/10/21) the stock fell hard after open down to around 44 and found massive support all the way back to up 66. The most sold front week call? $40/$42 strikes. Premium when I screen shotted this? $22.20. Stocks going to pin above $60 for awhile likely, unless people are stupid enough to buy the OTM calls, in which case, it may squeeze itself higher.
Smart hedge funds are going to pile into this, sell you the calls, shove the price up to keep selling you calls, then watch them all evaporate worthless in one of the future weeks in the chain, dump back the shares to help shove the price down, oh and did I mention? They shorted the top.
https://preview.redd.it/ivy78woneug61.png?width=392&format=png&auto=webp&s=0604940c09126dc6d5b96a9cc5f17e4013ae5d9d
It's just another plain old stock acting as a derivative of the option chain gamma squeeze. That's it, with a bit of short squeeze thrown in there and a WHOLE BUNCH of WSB fomo. The shorts are covering and pushing up the volume, likely re-shorting on the way up, and then you have WSB fomo'ing in to round out the total: a massive volume of 200 million shares today. You've got people that think this thing will skyrocket to 500+ (and it may) but the stakes get higher and higher each ladder up you take and the moves become more violent and more likely it comes all the way back down in short time the quicker it goes up.
Might it get there? Sure. But be prepare to take profits when it does because...
ITS CALLED MEAN REVERSION. THIS CANT GO ON FOREVER.
Not to mention, the moves you are seeing are in completely overvalued companies, with horrible fundamentals, and poor prospects.
Oh what's that? CGC got some CBD treats for Martha, seems fitting that something ill is going on in this industry considering she went to prison for insider trading. If the dog treats get you excited about the stock, Martha belongs here more than you do.
200M shares today means people who were long term bag holders cashed out and the shares have turned over the float two times in two days. That also means the shorts have turned over and are now short again. It means the HFT firms are feasting on all of you. It means Citadel is making a pile on the spreads.
What to take away: An amount of shares equal to the entire float has changed hands, or in other words, fewer reason for people to bag hold. Fewer people that have to hedge. Fewer people that have to cover. Fewer people to help stabilize any of these upper price tiers, and keep the price stable by holding, and more reason it's going to collapse sooner (or later).
But, this IS a casino after all...
Let's see what happened with TLRY last time this happened (oh, you're new here? Yeah, this isn't the first time):
https://preview.redd.it/p652mvgreug61.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=d95f2b0ccf946717859bffb28601dfd29e999e0b
Looks eerily familiar to something else recently. Last time this occurred it traded between $100 and $300 in a single week timeframe.
For those of you that are new: THIS IS NOT NORMAL. STOCKS DO NOT ALWAYS DO THIS. You are in the infancy of a new age of trading, but people still know, fundamentals matter a whole lot more than everyone is leading on, and these valuations are getting extremely overextended.
Eventually, in the first squeeze Tilray bled off until the pandemic hit and it piled down to $2.43 a share. At $2.43/share, I would have bought it. Even at $10/12/14. At these levels? You're just ultimately out of touch but I look forward to the loss porn.
So in short, again: Sir, this is a casino.
Timeline of events, and how to not become a bagholder:
The Canadian operators are literally the last companies I'd play off a US legislation play, and one of the only ones worth owning in $APHA for the arbitrage play on the shares. But if Tilray comes crashing back down, $APHA will as well along with all of them, and you have to hope you lose a lot less on $APHA crashing than you'll make on the arbitrage between the share price.
- $APHA earnings are good, stocks pop a bit, and level off
- Legislators pull a pump and dump since they probably have calls and say planning on some laws regarding changing the schedule of cannabis (notice: we will likely NOT get outright legalization, just re-scheduling)
- $CGC earnings are actually awful, with the caveat they have profitability on the horizon
- $TLRY gets a UK deal
- $TLRY starts going insane - since $APHA is a reverse merger with a .81 value share to share, it starts pumping, people start buying the lower priced cannabis stuff and entire sector starts moving on "overall strength"
- There's no strength, there's a gamma squeeze backed by investor momentum, and a short squeeze on Tilray.
- This is going to come back down violently then plateau out like GME and pull a slow bleed the rest of the way back down, just like the second graph I posted. There is no fundamental or even POSSIBILITY of better fundamentals immediately on US legislation. The cost to enter the US market will most definitely cause capex and goodwill capital outflows, and set back their profitability since there are established MSO's in the USA already. The USA opening the market to these companies will only further degrade the actual balance sheets/income statements and slow down profits and you know what institutions and shareholders like? Yep. Profits.
- Finally, how to not become a bag holder: The market can stay irrational way, way, way longer than you expect. So this may go on for a bit, but refer back to 7. It's coming back down eventually, set expectations and pick your exit, or start to shave off your position as it goes up and let a portion of it run. Eventually, you have to sell to actually realize a gain, don't forget that. Once you do, close the chart, remove it from your watchlist, check back in on it in a month if you want to get back in when you have a clear head.
THIS IS ALL JUST "SENTIMENT" BASED YOLOING BY THIS SUB. It has probably driven uneducated retail into the trades also - who will also become bag holders.
Let me put this in big letters for those of you that can only read big font and use crayons:
NONE OF THESE COMPANIES HAVE REAL USA MARKET EXPOSURE, THEY ARE CANADIAN COMPANIES. THEY DO NOT HAVE MARKET POSITIONING AND ARE NOT POISED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF US LEGALIZATION.
IF ANYTHING: IT WILL HURT THEIR BOTTOM LINE AND SET BACK EARNINGS BECAUSE OF CAPEX AND CASH OUTFLOWS TO GET A POSITION IN THE MARKET AND SOME OF THEM WILL GO OUT OF BUSINESS BECAUSE OF IT, WHILE OTHERS WILL FALL OUT OF PROFITIABILITY TO ENTER THE MARKET AND COMPETE WITH THE REAL PLAYERS.
Who are the real players? (Cresco $CRLBF and Curaleaf $CURLF - do your own DD or wait for a post next week\***************)*
Conclusion: Nobody should plan on holding these long term. Don't let someone else hand you bags like I did this morning at open on the pop unless you plan to hand your bags off and find the next play.
You likely will not time the top. Pick a place you're ready to exit the trade, exit the trade or slowly shave your position, close the graphs and don't fomo back in. Just be done with the trade afterwards. You're likely not a cannabis multi millionaire and will not be one, unless you were loaded to the brim with low cost calls from last summefall or unless you literally yolo'd $10M into one of these a few weeks ago, and in that case, you belong here, congrats on your gains and fuck you.
THIS IS A SECTOFOMO SQUEEZE. AND IT WILL END. THIS IS NOT SENTIMENT AND CNBC IS TROLLING US WITH IT LIKE WE HAVE THE POWER.
And if you think WE are the ones driving the price up, the hedge funds are definitely watching and playing and they can bring these down at will at almost any time they want. You're holding a lit molotov, the only question is: will you throw it before it blows up?
The rest of you? Plz fuck off with you 20 shares @ $2 on Sundial, fuck off with the "HOLD THE LINE SNDL $10 EOW", fuck off with your fomo, and fuck off with the "movement" and "lets push this to the sky" stuff and most importantly don't post DD if you have zero clue what is going on.
You know what "lets push this to the sky" sounds like? Market manipulation. We're not in this together, I literally handed one of you a bag to hold this morning and even if they go up for another month, eventually, that bags gonna be heavy and I ain't coming back for it. I ain't tipping you either.
These prices are insanely high for these companies. The multiples are out of control, and if you buy in at these levels, well, best of luck, I hope it works out for you. I'm fighting the fomo of extended gains, and will continue to put my money elsewhere.
SIR, THIS IS A CASINO.
Positions: I had the meme stocks like you literally all of them minus ACB and CGC. I took gains and bought 500 shares of Cresco prob increasing to 1,000 tomorrow, and kept the rest off the table to pay my wife's boyfriend's rent.
Disclaimer: I have Tilray puts I'm prepared to average down on and diamond hand like a real boss because this is coming back down.
Edit: You know what I forgot to add? Some of the biggest holders, the cannabis ETFs and funds, you know what they did today? They trimmed their positions. And they will continue to do so because of fiduciary responsibility and when you de-concentrate shares into the retail's hands, the moves will get more and more finnicky and more and more violent.
Edit 2: Some normie tried calling me out like I never saw this trade coming or am a hedge shill, https://imgur.com/a/asAVkiC - I had thousands of shares, these are just the trades from this month, and I'm not advocating a buy, I sold mostly all of them this morning except for adding Cresco back in. You want the gain numbers? You do the math, I'm not your math tutor, I sold like 6 minutes after open for most of them. I have Tilray puts for next week and will be buying a few months out at various strikes as it continues to climb.
Yeah, I think these are coming back down in price sooner rather than later, that isn't extraordinary information for a common sense person.
Edit 3: I'm getting piles of messages from people who used to follow my DD back in 2018/2019. Yes, it's the real SoRefreshing, proof: https://imgur.com/a/Pn5LqCe
Edit 4: Eh don't request me with "What should I do with XX" be a big adult grown up and decide your own risk tolerance and exits. I responded to the first 10 or so. Now I have 100. I can't. I disabled chat messages.
Edit 5: jesus with the awards go buy TSLA calls this is WSB not fb/twtr disclaimer: have TSLA calls
Edit 6: Oh look, they're pinning it around the $42 strike. Go figure.
https://i.redd.it/3jfgx6qoavg61.jpg363 silver awards & 1442 awards · Battlelover on /memes · Context
1. Dow set to add to Wednesday’s record despite Capitol turmoil
- U.S. stock futures rose Thursday, a day after the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high despite the turmoil at the Capitol. Early Thursday, outgoing President Donald Trump said in a statement there “will be an orderly transition” of power, shortly after Congress confirmed President-elect Joe Biden’s win.
- Economists expect an increase in initial jobless claims, when the Labor Department reports its weekly numbers at 8:30 a.m. ET. With the seven-day average of new daily U.S. Covid infections spiking to a record high, first-time filings for unemployment benefits are seen rising by 28,000 to 815,000 for the week ended Jan. 2.
- Ahead of Friday’s government employment report, the ADP’s look at December jobs trends at U.S. companies showed a contraction in private-sector positions for the first time since the early days of the coronavirus. Throughout most of the pandemic, the ADP estimates have been below the final government count.
2. 10-year Treasury yield above 1%; bitcoin above $38,000
- The 10-year Treasury yield remained above 1% on Thursday morning after projected wins for Democrats in both Senate runoff elections in Georgia. Lightening up on bonds, pushing prices down and yields up, investors bought riskier assets like stocks and bitcoin.
- The world’s largest cryptocurrency smashed through the $38,000 mark to hit a record high on Thursday as it continued its massive rally. Bitcoin has been up about 29% in the first days of 2021 and is up 380% over the past 12 months.
3. Congress confirms Biden as next president
- Congress early Thursday confirmed the Electoral College vote for Biden, a day after Trump supporters breached the Capitol in a chaotic effort to avoid the formal recognition that the president lost the election. Shortly after the confirmation, White House spokesman Dan Scavino tweeted Trump’s statement, which promised “an orderly transition on January 20th,” the day of Biden’s inauguration, but also perpetuated the baseless claim that he actually won.
- Congress’ process of counting Electoral College votes was interrupted Wednesday afternoon when rioters stormed the U.S. Capitol building. A woman who was among the invaders was shot and killed by Capitol Police. Three other people died from medical emergencies.
4. U.S. trade group asks Pence to ‘seriously consider’ invoking 25th Amendment
- The National Association of Manufacturers, a trade organization representing 14,000 U.S. companies, called on Vice President Mike Pence to “seriously consider” invoking the 25th Amendment of the Constitution to remove Trump from office. Jay Timmons, CEO of the manufacturers group, is a former executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Two Democratic U.S. representatives worked on a letter to Pence requesting he invoke the amendment.
- Members of Trump’s Cabinet issued harsh rebukes of the violence that unfolded at the Capitol. The officials, however, stopped short of criticizing the president, who had urged his supporters to take action at a pro-Trump rally Wednesday morning.
- An administration official confirmed to CNBC’s Eamon Javers that National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien and Deputy National Security Advisor Matthew Pottinger are considering resigning over the insurrection. Stephanie Grisham, chief of staff for first lady Melania Trump, and Sarah Matthews, White House deputy press secretary, both resigned Wednesday.
- Mick Mulvaney, Trump’s former chief of staff, announced on CNBC on Thursday he is resigning as special envoy to Northern Ireland.
5. Democrats win the majority in the Senate
- During the Capitol siege, Democrat Jon Ossoff was projected as the winner of the second of two Senate runoff elections Tuesday in Georgia. The defeat of Republican David Perdue, whose Senate term expired Sunday, coupled with Democrat Raphael Warnock’s projected victory over Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, splits the 100 Senate right down the middle. However, Democrats take over the majority as Vice President-elect Kamala Harris would be the tie-breaking vote. After Biden’s inauguration, Democrats will control the Senate, House and the White House.
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) – The housewares retailer reported quarterly profit of 8 cents per share, short of the 19 cents a share consensus estimate. Revenue also fell short of forecasts, hurt by a steep drop in store traffic and higher freight costs, among other factors. Shares dropped 12.5% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
STOCK SYMBOL: BBBY
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Walgreens (WBA) – The drugstore operator beat estimates by 19 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of $1.22 per share. Revenue also exceeded Wall Street projections. Walgreens said the business environment remains challenging, but it is maintaining its prior fiscal 2021 forecast. The shares added 3% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
STOCK SYMBOL: WBA
(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Conagra (CAG) – The food producer reported quarterly profit of 81 cents per share, 8 cents a share above estimates. Revenue was in line with Wall Street forecasts. It also forecast organic sales growth of 6% to 8% for the current quarter, as stay-at-home consumers continue to stoke demand for its frozen dinners and other products. The stock fell slightly in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
STOCK SYMBOL: CAG
(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Constellation Brands (STZ) – The spirits producer earned $3.09 per share for its latest quarter, compared to a consensus estimate of $2.39 a share. Revenue also topped estimates and the company authorized a new $2 billion share repurchase program. The shares added 2.4% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
STOCK SYMBOL: STZ
(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
CureVac (CVAC) – CureVac struck an alliance deal with drugmaker Bayer, aimed at helping the German biotech firm gain regulatory approval for its Covid-19 vaccine as well as distribute vaccine doses. The stock jumped 15% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
STOCK SYMBOL: CVAC
(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
DXC Technology (DXC) – The IT consulting firm is the target of a more than $10 billion takeover bid from French rival Atos, according to two sources with knowledge of the matter who spoke to Reuters. A formal approach is said to have been made, with discussions still at a preliminary stage. The stock added 8% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
STOCK SYMBOL: DXC
(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) – Bank of America Securities upgraded the bank to “buy” from “neutral,” calling it “best-in-class” in what will likely be a strong 2021 for banks. The stock added 1.9% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
STOCK SYMBOL: JPM
(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Nvidia (NVDA) – The chipmaker’s stock was added to Citi’s “Catalyst Watch” list, with Citi expecting Nvidia shares to emerge from recent underperformance coming out of next week’s Consumer Electronics Show. The stock rose 2% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
STOCK SYMBOL: NVDA
(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Alibaba (BABA) – The China e-commerce giant and Tencent Holdings could be added to a U.S. blacklist by the White House, according to multiple reports. Many consider such a ban unlikely, however, given that the Chinese firms are widely held by U.S. investors.
STOCK SYMBOL: BABA
(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Twitter (TWTR), Facebook (FB) – Twitter and Facebook temporarily locked President Donald Trump’s accounts and removed some of his posts, hoping to quell further violence in Washington following yesterday’s assault on Capitol Hill.
STOCK SYMBOL: TWTR
(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
STOCK SYMBOL: FB
(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
MGM Resorts (MGM) – The casino operator was urged by shareholder Snow Lake Capital to sell 20% of its China business to a strategic partner. Snow Lake owns 7.5% of MGM China and said such a move would give MGM financial flexibility.
STOCK SYMBOL: MGM
(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Costco (COST) – The warehouse retailer reported a 12% jump in December sales compared to a year earlier, helped by increased sales of frozen foods and liquor. Comparable store sales were up 10.7%.
STOCK SYMBOL: COST
(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Baidu (BIDU) – Baidu has chosen Goldman Sachs (GS) and CLSA for its planned Hong Kong listing, according to a Bloomberg report. The offering by the China-based search engine could raise at least $3.5 billion.
STOCK SYMBOL: BIDU
(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
T-Mobile US (TMUS) – The mobile service provider added 824,000 postpaid phone subscribers during the fourth quarter, bring its 2020 total to 5.5 million.
STOCK SYMBOL: TMUS
(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
1. Dow set to add to Wednesday’s record despite Capitol turmoil
- U.S. stock futures rose Thursday, a day after the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high despite the turmoil at the Capitol. Early Thursday, outgoing President Donald Trump said in a statement there “will be an orderly transition” of power, shortly after Congress confirmed President-elect Joe Biden’s win.
- Economists expect an increase in initial jobless claims, when the Labor Department reports its weekly numbers at 8:30 a.m. ET. With the seven-day average of new daily U.S. Covid infections spiking to a record high, first-time filings for unemployment benefits are seen rising by 28,000 to 815,000 for the week ended Jan. 2.
- Ahead of Friday’s government employment report, the ADP’s look at December jobs trends at U.S. companies showed a contraction in private-sector positions for the first time since the early days of the coronavirus. Throughout most of the pandemic, the ADP estimates have been below the final government count.
2. 10-year Treasury yield above 1%; bitcoin above $38,000
- The 10-year Treasury yield remained above 1% on Thursday morning after projected wins for Democrats in both Senate runoff elections in Georgia. Lightening up on bonds, pushing prices down and yields up, investors bought riskier assets like stocks and bitcoin.
- The world’s largest cryptocurrency smashed through the $38,000 mark to hit a record high on Thursday as it continued its massive rally. Bitcoin has been up about 29% in the first days of 2021 and is up 380% over the past 12 months.
3. Congress confirms Biden as next president
- Congress early Thursday confirmed the Electoral College vote for Biden, a day after Trump supporters breached the Capitol in a chaotic effort to avoid the formal recognition that the president lost the election. Shortly after the confirmation, White House spokesman Dan Scavino tweeted Trump’s statement, which promised “an orderly transition on January 20th,” the day of Biden’s inauguration, but also perpetuated the baseless claim that he actually won.
- Congress’ process of counting Electoral College votes was interrupted Wednesday afternoon when rioters stormed the U.S. Capitol building. A woman who was among the invaders was shot and killed by Capitol Police. Three other people died from medical emergencies.
4. U.S. trade group asks Pence to ‘seriously consider’ invoking 25th Amendment
- The National Association of Manufacturers, a trade organization representing 14,000 U.S. companies, called on Vice President Mike Pence to “seriously consider” invoking the 25th Amendment of the Constitution to remove Trump from office. Jay Timmons, CEO of the manufacturers group, is a former executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Two Democratic U.S. representatives worked on a letter to Pence requesting he invoke the amendment.
- Members of Trump’s Cabinet issued harsh rebukes of the violence that unfolded at the Capitol. The officials, however, stopped short of criticizing the president, who had urged his supporters to take action at a pro-Trump rally Wednesday morning.
- An administration official confirmed to CNBC’s Eamon Javers that National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien and Deputy National Security Advisor Matthew Pottinger are considering resigning over the insurrection. Stephanie Grisham, chief of staff for first lady Melania Trump, and Sarah Matthews, White House deputy press secretary, both resigned Wednesday.
- Mick Mulvaney, Trump’s former chief of staff, announced on CNBC on Thursday he is resigning as special envoy to Northern Ireland.
5. Democrats win the majority in the Senate
- During the Capitol siege, Democrat Jon Ossoff was projected as the winner of the second of two Senate runoff elections Tuesday in Georgia. The defeat of Republican David Perdue, whose Senate term expired Sunday, coupled with Democrat Raphael Warnock’s projected victory over Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, splits the 100 Senate right down the middle. However, Democrats take over the majority as Vice President-elect Kamala Harris would be the tie-breaking vote. After Biden’s inauguration, Democrats will control the Senate, House and the White House.
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) – The housewares retailer reported quarterly profit of 8 cents per share, short of the 19 cents a share consensus estimate. Revenue also fell short of forecasts, hurt by a steep drop in store traffic and higher freight costs, among other factors. Shares dropped 12.5% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
STOCK SYMBOL: BBBY
(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Walgreens (WBA) – The drugstore operator beat estimates by 19 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of $1.22 per share. Revenue also exceeded Wall Street projections. Walgreens said the business environment remains challenging, but it is maintaining its prior fiscal 2021 forecast. The shares added 3% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
STOCK SYMBOL: WBA
(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Conagra (CAG) – The food producer reported quarterly profit of 81 cents per share, 8 cents a share above estimates. Revenue was in line with Wall Street forecasts. It also forecast organic sales growth of 6% to 8% for the current quarter, as stay-at-home consumers continue to stoke demand for its frozen dinners and other products. The stock fell slightly in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
STOCK SYMBOL: CAG
(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Constellation Brands (STZ) – The spirits producer earned $3.09 per share for its latest quarter, compared to a consensus estimate of $2.39 a share. Revenue also topped estimates and the company authorized a new $2 billion share repurchase program. The shares added 2.4% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
STOCK SYMBOL: STZ
(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
CureVac (CVAC) – CureVac struck an alliance deal with drugmaker Bayer, aimed at helping the German biotech firm gain regulatory approval for its Covid-19 vaccine as well as distribute vaccine doses. The stock jumped 15% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
STOCK SYMBOL: CVAC
(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
DXC Technology (DXC) – The IT consulting firm is the target of a more than $10 billion takeover bid from French rival Atos, according to two sources with knowledge of the matter who spoke to Reuters. A formal approach is said to have been made, with discussions still at a preliminary stage. The stock added 8% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
STOCK SYMBOL: DXC
(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) – Bank of America Securities upgraded the bank to “buy” from “neutral,” calling it “best-in-class” in what will likely be a strong 2021 for banks. The stock added 1.9% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
STOCK SYMBOL: JPM
(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Nvidia (NVDA) – The chipmaker’s stock was added to Citi’s “Catalyst Watch” list, with Citi expecting Nvidia shares to emerge from recent underperformance coming out of next week’s Consumer Electronics Show. The stock rose 2% in premarket trading as of 7:41 a.m. ET.
STOCK SYMBOL: NVDA
(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Alibaba (BABA) – The China e-commerce giant and Tencent Holdings could be added to a U.S. blacklist by the White House, according to multiple reports. Many consider such a ban unlikely, however, given that the Chinese firms are widely held by U.S. investors.
STOCK SYMBOL: BABA
(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Twitter (TWTR), Facebook (FB) – Twitter and Facebook temporarily locked President Donald Trump’s accounts and removed some of his posts, hoping to quell further violence in Washington following yesterday’s assault on Capitol Hill.
STOCK SYMBOL: TWTR
(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
STOCK SYMBOL: FB
(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
MGM Resorts (MGM) – The casino operator was urged by shareholder Snow Lake Capital to sell 20% of its China business to a strategic partner. Snow Lake owns 7.5% of MGM China and said such a move would give MGM financial flexibility.
STOCK SYMBOL: MGM
(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Costco (COST) – The warehouse retailer reported a 12% jump in December sales compared to a year earlier, helped by increased sales of frozen foods and liquor. Comparable store sales were up 10.7%.
STOCK SYMBOL: COST
(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Baidu (BIDU) – Baidu has chosen Goldman Sachs (GS) and CLSA for its planned Hong Kong listing, according to a Bloomberg report. The offering by the China-based search engine could raise at least $3.5 billion.
STOCK SYMBOL: BIDU
(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
T-Mobile US (TMUS) – The mobile service provider added 824,000 postpaid phone subscribers during the fourth quarter, bring its 2020 total to 5.5 million.
STOCK SYMBOL: TMUS
(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
GOVERNMENT
Population: 10 Million or less
Military/Police: Almost non-existent since everyone is happy, safe and has an excellent quality of life. UNIVERSAL RIGHTS
Freedom of Speech, Assembly and Right to Bear Arms
Compulsory annual vote on ALL laws ( which require 2/3 popular vote to approve/repeal) A. Every adult must vote via internet within 12 Hours
Free Excellent Education
Free and sufficient unprepared organic food
Free clean water and electricity (powered by renewable energy)
Free internet access
Universal Basic Income of U$1,000 ($800 with tax)Work is optional for all
Free funeral /cremation service
Private Business employees receive equal share 1/2 of total profits earned. ( Except Vice Industries
Retirement at age 60 for those who worked 20 years or more.
Free museums
Interest-free personal loans of up to 10 times borrower's monthly wage. WORK
INCOMES
PENSIONS
FUNDING
Income taxes ranging from 10-20%
All sales tax 20%(Except bikes,computers and books)
Pensions taxed at 20%NOTE:. (Income, sales and pension taxes CANNOT be increased)
Business taxes of up to 20%
Public Transportation being privately owned taxed at 35%
(Vice Industries) Casinos, brothels, marijuana shops, liquor stores are privately owned but taxed at40%. (Workers do not receive 50% of profits)
All savings of more than $5000 belong to government after death.$5000 and less go to closest living relative.
Hi guys, submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments] I have been using reddit for years in my personal life (not trading!) and wanted to give something back in an area where i am an expert. I worked at an investment bank for seven years and joined them as a graduate FX trader so have lots of professional experience, by which i mean I was trained and paid by a big institution to trade on their behalf. This is very different to being a full-time home trader, although that is not to discredit those guys, who can accumulate a good amount of experience/wisdom through self learning. When I get time I'm going to write a mid-length posts on each topic for you guys along the lines of how i was trained. I guess there would be 15-20 topics in total so about 50-60 posts. Feel free to comment or ask questions. The first topic is Risk Management and we'll cover it in three parts Part I
Why it mattersThe first rule of making money through trading is to ensure you do not lose money. Look at any serious hedge fund’s website and they’ll talk about their first priority being “preservation of investor capital.”You have to keep it before you grow it. Strangely, if you look at retail trading websites, for every one article on risk management there are probably fifty on trade selection. This is completely the wrong way around. The great news is that this stuff is pretty simple and process-driven. Anyone can learn and follow best practices. Seriously, avoiding mistakes is one of the most important things: there's not some holy grail system for finding winning trades, rather a routine and fairly boring set of processes that ensure that you are profitable, despite having plenty of losing trades alongside the winners. Capital and position sizingThe first thing you have to know is how much capital you are working with. Let’s say you have $100,000 deposited. This is your maximum trading capital. Your trading capital is not the leveraged amount. It is the amount of money you have deposited and can withdraw or lose.Position sizing is what ensures that a losing streak does not take you out of the market. A rule of thumb is that one should risk no more than 2% of one’s account balance on an individual trade and no more than 8% of one’s account balance on a specific theme. We’ll look at why that’s a rule of thumb later. For now let’s just accept those numbers and look at examples. So we have $100,000 in our account. And we wish to buy EURUSD. We should therefore not be risking more than 2% which $2,000. We look at a technical chart and decide to leave a stop below the monthly low, which is 55 pips below market. We’ll come back to this in a bit. So what should our position size be? We go to the calculator page, select Position Size and enter our details. There are many such calculators online - just google "Pip calculator". https://preview.redd.it/y38zb666e5h51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=26e4fe569dc5c1f43ce4c746230c49b138691d14 So the appropriate size is a buy position of 363,636 EURUSD. If it reaches our stop level we know we’ll lose precisely $2,000 or 2% of our capital. You should be using this calculator (or something similar) on every single trade so that you know your risk. Now imagine that we have similar bets on EURJPY and EURGBP, which have also broken above moving averages. Clearly this EUR-momentum is a theme. If it works all three bets are likely to pay off. But if it goes wrong we are likely to lose on all three at once. We are going to look at this concept of correlation in more detail later. The total amount of risk in our portfolio - if all of the trades on this EUR-momentum theme were to hit their stops - should not exceed $8,000 or 8% of total capital. This allows us to go big on themes we like without going bust when the theme does not work. As we’ll see later, many traders only win on 40-60% of trades. So you have to accept losing trades will be common and ensure you size trades so they cannot ruin you. Similarly, like poker players, we should risk more on trades we feel confident about and less on trades that seem less compelling. However, this should always be subject to overall position sizing constraints. For example before you put on each trade you might rate the strength of your conviction in the trade and allocate a position size accordingly: https://preview.redd.it/q2ea6rgae5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=4332cb8d0bbbc3d8db972c1f28e8189105393e5b To keep yourself disciplined you should try to ensure that no more than one in twenty trades are graded exceptional and allocated 5% of account balance risk. It really should be a rare moment when all the stars align for you. Notice that the nice thing about dealing in percentages is that it scales. Say you start out with $100,000 but end the year up 50% at $150,000. Now a 1% bet will risk $1,500 rather than $1,000. That makes sense as your capital has grown. It is extremely common for retail accounts to blow-up by making only 4-5 losing trades because they are leveraged at 50:1 and have taken on far too large a position, relative to their account balance. Consider that GBPUSD tends to move 1% each day. If you have an account balance of $10k then it would be crazy to take a position of $500k (50:1 leveraged). A 1% move on $500k is $5k. Two perfectly regular down days in a row — or a single day’s move of 2% — and you will receive a margin call from the broker, have the account closed out, and have lost all your money. Do not let this happen to you. Use position sizing discipline to protect yourself. Kelly CriterionIf you’re wondering - why “about 2%” per trade? - that’s a fair question. Why not 0.5% or 10% or any other number?The Kelly Criterion is a formula that was adapted for use in casinos. If you know the odds of winning and the expected pay-off, it tells you how much you should bet in each round. This is harder than it sounds. Let’s say you could bet on a weighted coin flip, where it lands on heads 60% of the time and tails 40% of the time. The payout is $2 per $1 bet. Well, absolutely you should bet. The odds are in your favour. But if you have, say, $100 it is less obvious how much you should bet to avoid ruin. Say you bet $50, the odds that it could land on tails twice in a row are 16%. You could easily be out after the first two flips. Equally, betting $1 is not going to maximise your advantage. The odds are 60/40 in your favour so only betting $1 is likely too conservative. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that produces the long-run optimal bet size, given the odds. Applying the formula to forex trading looks like this: Position size % = Winning trade % - ( (1- Winning trade %) / Risk-reward ratio If you have recorded hundreds of trades in your journal - see next chapter - you can calculate what this outputs for you specifically. If you don't have hundreds of trades then let’s assume some realistic defaults of Winning trade % being 30% and Risk-reward ratio being 3. The 3 implies your TP is 3x the distance of your stop from entry e.g. 300 pips take profit and 100 pips stop loss. So that’s 0.3 - (1 - 0.3) / 3 = 6.6%. Hold on a second. 6.6% of your account probably feels like a LOT to risk per trade.This is the main observation people have on Kelly: whilst it may optimise the long-run results it doesn’t take into account the pain of drawdowns. It is better thought of as the rational maximum limit. You needn’t go right up to the limit! With a 30% winning trade ratio, the odds of you losing on four trades in a row is nearly one in four. That would result in a drawdown of nearly a quarter of your starting account balance. Could you really stomach that and put on the fifth trade, cool as ice? Most of us could not. Accordingly people tend to reduce the bet size. For example, let’s say you know you would feel emotionally affected by losing 25% of your account. Well, the simplest way is to divide the Kelly output by four. You have effectively hidden 75% of your account balance from Kelly and it is now optimised to avoid a total wipeout of just the 25% it can see. This gives 6.6% / 4 = 1.65%. Of course different trading approaches and different risk appetites will provide different optimal bet sizes but as a rule of thumb something between 1-2% is appropriate for the style and risk appetite of most retail traders. Incidentally be very wary of systems or traders who claim high winning trade % like 80%. Invariably these don’t pass a basic sense-check:
How to use stop losses sensiblyStop losses have a bad reputation amongst the retail community but are absolutely essential to risk management. No serious discretionary trader can operate without them.A stop loss is a resting order, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. For a recap on the various order types visit this chapter. The valid concern with stop losses is that disreputable brokers look for a concentration of stops and then, when the market is close, whipsaw the price through the stop levels so that the clients ‘stop out’ and sell to the broker at a low rate before the market naturally comes back higher. This is referred to as ‘stop hunting’. This would be extremely immoral behaviour and the way to guard against it is to use a highly reputable top-tier broker in a well regulated region such as the UK. Why are stop losses so important? Well, there is no other way to manage risk with certainty. You should always have a pre-determined stop loss before you put on a trade. Not having one is a recipe for disaster: you will find yourself emotionally attached to the trade as it goes against you and it will be extremely hard to cut the loss. This is a well known behavioural bias that we’ll explore in a later chapter. Learning to take a loss and move on rationally is a key lesson for new traders. A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not. Bruce Kovner, founder of the hedge fund Caxton Associates There is an old saying amongst bank traders which is “losers average losers”. It is tempting, having bought EURUSD and seeing it go lower, to buy more. Your average price will improve if you keep buying as it goes lower. If it was cheap before it must be a bargain now, right? Wrong. Where does that end? Always have a pre-determined cut-off point which limits your risk. A level where you know the reason for the trade was proved ‘wrong’ ... and stick to it strictly. If you trade using discretion, use stops. Picking a clear levelWhere you leave your stop loss is key.Typically traders will leave them at big technical levels such as recent highs or lows. For example if EURUSD is trading at 1.1250 and the recent month’s low is 1.1205 then leaving it just below at 1.1200 seems sensible. If you were going long, just below the double bottom support zone seems like a sensible area to leave a stop You want to give it a bit of breathing room as we know support zones often get challenged before the price rallies. This is because lots of traders identify the same zones. You won’t be the only one selling around 1.1200. The “weak hands” who leave their sell stop order at exactly the level are likely to get taken out as the market tests the support. Those who leave it ten or fifteen pips below the level have more breathing room and will survive a quick test of the level before a resumed run-up. Your timeframe and trading style clearly play a part. Here’s a candlestick chart (one candle is one day) for GBPUSD. https://preview.redd.it/moyngdy4f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=91af88da00dd3a09e202880d8029b0ddf04fb802 If you are putting on a trend-following trade you expect to hold for weeks then you need to have a stop loss that can withstand the daily noise. Look at the downtrend on the chart. There were plenty of days in which the price rallied 60 pips or more during the wider downtrend. So having a really tight stop of, say, 25 pips that gets chopped up in noisy short-term moves is not going to work for this kind of trade. You need to use a wider stop and take a smaller position size, determined by the stop level. There are several tools you can use to help you estimate what is a safe distance and we’ll look at those in the next section. There are of course exceptions. For example, if you are doing range-break style trading you might have a really tight stop, set just below the previous range high. https://preview.redd.it/ygy0tko7f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=34af49da61c911befdc0db26af66f6c313556c81 Clearly then where you set stops will depend on your trading style as well as your holding horizons and the volatility of each instrument. Here are some guidelines that can help:
For example if you stop understanding why a product is going up or down and your fundamental thesis has been confirmed wrong, get out. For example, if you are long because you think the central bank is turning hawkish and AUDUSD is going to play catch up with rates … then you hear dovish noises from the central bank and the bond yields retrace lower and back in line with the currency - close your AUDUSD position. You already know your thesis was wrong. No need to give away more money to the market. Coming up in part IIEDIT: part II hereLetting stops breathe When to change a stop Entering and exiting winning positions Risk:reward ratios Risk-adjusted returns Coming up in part IIISqueezes and other risksMarket positioning Bet correlation Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits *** Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer. |
submitted by Faysalmahmud45 to MAKEMONEY2021 [link] [comments] HOW YOU CAN MAKE MONEY ONLINE IN 2021 It seems this pandemic we have been hit with has had a big effect not only in our health but also with our jobs and income, With lots of us now looking at how to make money online and in particular ways to make money at home. Learning how to make extra money online is more important than ever seeing as lots of people, Me included still are not that keen on leaving the house. Would you like to know how to make extra money online and earn an extra £500 per month on top of your normal wage? If you are looking for ways to make money at home and in particular how to make money online then this is the post for you. All of these methods I have used personally and I have always made money from them. It seems weird writing 2021 but after the year everyone on earth has had in 2020 I think everyone is looking forward to moving ahead. What better way to move ahead than to take on new ways to make money at home and in particular an extra £500 per month on top of your normal wage. Some of my posts may contain affiliate links. This simply means if you purchase something after clicking one of the links I may receive a commission at no extra cost to yourself. Many thanks for the continued support. So without further ado lets jump in and see how we are going to go about making that extra money online. 1: MATCHED BETTING: I have said this before but putting it simply Matched Betting is the number one when it comes to the easiest way to make money at home. If you are not making extra money online by using Matched Betting then you are missing out on some serious extra cash. Matched betting is the action of placing a for and against bet on a football team or other sport and using this to gain the bookmaker bonuses. It is 100% legal and is netting some people up to £1500 Per month. When looking around for how to make money online this comes top of most google searches. There is a mom I know on one of the Matched betting forums who is earning approx. £1200 per month from the comfort of her own home while her children nap. It’s crazy and sometimes I feel people ignore this as they just think it is normal betting or it is not entirely legal but trust me it is. If you are interested in learning a bit more then check out my guide on Matched Betting, it goes a bit more into how it works. This is my main way of how to make money at home and it has worked really well for me. I even taught a friend how to do it and he now makes around £400 extra per month in his spare time. Or if you want to start making extra money online straight away then simply click on the banner below to get free access to Profit accumulator a site which has helped 300,000 customers by showing them how to make money online from Matched Betting. Profit Accumulator literally walks you through each matched bet with full text and video guides to and will have you making extra money online in an hour or so. Check them out. 2: VIRTUAL ASSISTANT So if you do a search on how to make money online I’m pretty sure that Virtual assistant will be close to the top of the search options. There is a very good reason for that. We are now living in an ever-increasing digital age and this is getting more and more common especially with the pandemic as companies are working out that it saves them money having their staff work from home. This also means lots of businesses will need digital assistants or Virtual assistants to assist them with their day to day business needs. So how do I start making extra money online from being a virtual assistant and what will I need to do? A virtual assistant could do any number of tasks online such as answering and replying to emails. Creating Facebook adverts, Decluttering emails, Setting up meetings and or organizing an online diary. There are plenty of virtual assistants who specialize in certain areas and I know of a couple of VA’s that specialize in making Pinterest pins for a blog and scheduling them out. Assuming you have a laptop or pc and a good internet connection as well as some personal skills such as good literacy, typing skills and organizational skills then you should have the basics to get started. Rebecca Lake over at Bosssinglemama.com has a great guide to getting started as a virtual assistant as she has great first-hand experience in this field. Go check it out. 3: SELL GOODS ON EBAY Let me add before I get started that I hate eBay, Don't get me wrong I have made money with eBay and from time to time it is a good way of earning some quick cash but out of all the ways of how to make money online, this is one of my least favorites. The reason is simply that there are lots of stupid people out there who bid for no reason or argue the item didn't arrive or is not as described and this can be annoying as well as very time-consuming. Don’t let this put you off though as it may have just been my experience but it’s not for me. However, if you are looking to get started with ways to make money at home then this is a good a place as any. The best place to start making extra money online with eBay is to have a clear out around the house and get together all the stuff you are probably thinking of just throwing out. Have a search around the site and see what other people have listed these types of items for. Once you have sold your stuff you can then reinvest that money by buying some packing products off the site and then look for stuff to buy and resell. Look around at car boot sales and thrift stores to get your bargains and then relist at a profit on eBay, Don’t forget to add the cost of your eBay fees and Paypal fees into the equation. When I first started looking at how to make money online eBay was one of the first places I came to. 4: CASINO OFFERS Hold on, I’m not suggesting you go down to your local casino. That is not a great way to make money, In fact, your more often than not lose all of your money. This is a cheeky way of gaining profit from the online casino bonuses offered to new customers. It works in a very similar way to Matched betting in that new bonuses are offered out to new customers and with a bit of background knowledge and trickery, you can obtain most of the profit from those bonuses without losing any money. It might sound too good to be true but it is from the brainchild of the guys over at Profit accumulator. Quite a lot of money earned within a day or two. Simply sign up with Bonus Accumulator, and they will walk you through your first couple of casino offers and then you will get access to their site which includes guides for all online casino offers as well as a very good forum for members. Sign up below and see how easy it is to make a good consistent profit. When I was learning how to make money online I didn’t have something as easy and accessible as Bonus accumulator. Hit the link below to learn more. 5: PINTEREST VA As with being a virtual assistant as I mentioned above, you could also specialize in one certain area if you are looking at how to make money online. Pinterest is essentially a search engine and requires not only great titles and descriptions but also very good graphics and visuals that stand out from the crowd when your potential customers are scrolling through it on their phone. This is where the problem lies for most bloggers or business owners, we are not overly creative and have probably not used graphics sites such as Canvas before. Luckily I have used Canvas and have now got pretty good at it, however, in the beginning, a Pinterest VA would have been very handy. A Pinterest VA can not only create pretty pins linking back to your site or blog but also they can schedule them out for you saving you more time to concentrate on other areas. My advice when trying to start out is to join some blogging groups on Facebook and create a profile. Then just put yourself out there. As a new VA, you could always offer out your services very cheaply just to get some experience behind you. Kristin from Believe In A Budget has a great post here on how she became a Pinterest VA and how to make money online from learning how to do it yourself. 6: OFFER SITES OHMYDOSH: Making extra money online and more specifically making around £500 per month is no easy feat. Offers sites are great at making you £20 here and £30 there but to do £500 per month you will need to combine 2 or 3 of these sites and hit them hard. It is possible though. You can certainly make £250 per month easily. When looking back at what I did when I was working out how to make money online as I found offers sites and the first one I came across was OhMyDosh. Offers sites are basically cashback sites that reward you with cash into the account when you sign up for certain things or do simple surveys etc. It is super easy and you can very quickly in one afternoon make a cheeky £50 or so with very minimal effort on your part. OhMyDosh is one of the easiest offers sites to navigate in my humble opinion. This makes all the difference as well when you are new to the site so I stuck with OhMyDosh for quite a while. You can sign up here for OhMyDosh if You use my special link you will also get a £1 sign up bonus for free. A nice little start to your profit without having to lift a finger. Pin This For Future Reference: SWAGBUCKS: Swagbucks is a very similar website to OhMyDosh accept it is a little more well known. You simply complete offers and surveys in exchange for Swagbucks which when you hit a certain amount of you can exchange for gift cards etc. It can get incredibly addictive as Swagbucks have a few daily targets for you to hit and achievements along the way. It becomes your goal to hit those achievements every day. If you sign up using my Swagbucks Link you will receive 300 Swagbucks for free. What a great way to start towards earning your first gift card. Swagbucks also have a chrome app button which you can install on your computer which can help you earn more each day giving you greater chances of earning some fantastic gift cards for yourself or your loved ones. INBOX POUNDS: Inbox Pounds is the last site you should try in the offers sites. When It comes to making extra money online then combining the 3 offers sites I have mentioned is the best way to maximise your income. Some of the offers will be the same but just skip those and move onto the next one. Inbox pounds also has a different variant called inbox dollars for our friends across the pond. The easy stuff is a section that I like on Inbox pounds whereby you can go on and answer easy questions or a simple survey for between 50pence to £1.50. You will be surprised how quickly these all add up. Dont miss out on making extra money online and earning some really quick cash, sign up using my referral code and start earning now. 7: BLOGGING Blogging is one of the top answers when searching for how to make money online. Although blogging is not a quick way to make money and it is certainly not the easiest it is one of the more rewarding ways to make money at home. If you are starting a blog just to make money you need to know that for most people it can be more than a year before they start seeing income and for others maybe less. It really does depend on how much effort you put into your blog. Take my blog for example. I work really long hours in my main job and a lot of the time I dont work on my blog until the weekend and then I am tired so just dont put too many hours in. It took me around a year before I started earning money. Other people may put in 4 or 5 hours a day every day and they will progress faster. With blogging though and when it comes to making extra money online with your blog, you need a bit of patience. If you have a passion for something then it is usually quite easy to turn this passion into a blog. It always helps if whatever you are writing about is something you really enjoy. If this is something that sounds good to you then I have written a few blogging guides to get you started here. Starting out blogging can be a bit of a minefield so I’m hoping these guides help. You can start your very own blog from as little as £5.99 per month. Siteground is who I use to host this blog and I have found them really great to work with. see their link below. Seeing as starting a blog is so cheap then there is nothing to stop you making extra money online from your new blog. 8: BECOME A PROOFREADER If you are always looking at how to make money online and keep seeing the same old stuff then try learning about how to get paid to become a proofreader. This is one of those great ways to make money at home by simply using your computer. Here in the UK I occasionally read a newspaper called the daily mail. I read it via an online app and every single page I read has grammatical errors and misspellings and it drives me mad (Frantically goes back through this post to look for misspellings!!) They clearly dont have anyone proofread their posts before they go onto the app and it makes me not read it as much. Im sure this is that same for other people. This can lead to you losing business so paying someone to Proofread emails, documents and other such media can be valuable and companies will pay you to to do this. Getting started Proofreading is a little harder but I would suggest setting up some profiles on sites such as People Per Hour Fiverr.com or Upwork. You can then offer up your services cheaply which will help if you have no experience. A lot of proofreading jobs will need you to have a degree unfortunately however there are lots of free courses online to help you get a good feel for Proofreading and can give you some background knowledge. If you love reading and spot mistakes easily then proofreading can be a great way of making extra money online. Read this beginners guide here and see how you feel about it. 9: TEACH ENGLISH ONLINE It sounds like you need to go off and get some kind of degree but trust me you don’t. You already have the gift of being able to speak perfect English and if you are looking at how to make money online then that is the skill you can use to do exactly that. I found out about this when my wife and I were hosting foreign students at our home. We got chatting to them and one group, in particular, said that a lot of the older students already speak good English but were struggling with conversational type language and how to sound more natural which must be an incredibly hard thing to do. They said that a lot of the students pay up to £20 per hour just to chat to you online and for you to give guidance on how they can sound more natural with their day to day chat. It sounded like a great idea of how to make money online so I got more information from them. Lots of companies are looking for people just like you to teach their students English and to reward you well for doing just that. It can all be done from the comfort of your own home with skype or in a zoom type meeting. Make sure to provide yourself with a quiet room and make sure there are going to be no distractions such as mobile phones going off or family members popping their heads in. So where do you go to find out more information and start making extra money online? Well, Education First is the biggest company and one im sure you will have heard of. You can build your own schedule although it does have to fit in somewhat with the hours the student is available. You can also teach the same student each time so you can build up a rapport and have a little fun with it. Click the link above and learn how to make extra money online by teaching students. 10: PUBLISH AN EBOOK With that handy website Amazon, you can write your own E-book and publish it on their site. The great thing is you dont even need to write it yourself if you dont want to as you can pay people to write it and also get people to design a cover for your E-book as well. The best way to prepare is to do a search on what keywords are doing well on searches within amazon and then base your E-book around those. As long as you are helping people learn something or solving a problem then you should see sales quite easily. It might help if you put your E-book up for free for a few weeks to gain some interest and some good reviews before applying a price. This E-book right here is the perfect example. How to write an E-book and sell it on Amazon step by step guide. Just remember you do not have to be an expert in something just a little more knowledgeable than your average Joe. 11: FREELANCE WORK In the current economic climate, we all find ourselves in, it makes sense to look for ways of how to make money online. Freelancing with skills you already have in your day job or skills you have in your hobbies can translate quite well when it comes to making extra money online. You can create a profile on sites such as Fiverr and Upwork and list the skills you have. You may be able to use a program like Canva really well to create Pinterest graphics or Wedding invites. There are people on Fiverr who get paid to play video games with lonely people which is a bit weird but shows that if you don’t think you possess a skill then you are probably wrong. FINAL THOUGHTS ON MAKING MONEY ONLINE IN 2021 This global pandemic has taught me one thing and that is the importance of making extra money online and having a passive income is paramount. How to make money online is now a more searched for term on Google now then it was at the beginning of the year. Everyone’s jobs have been and still are at risk and to have a second or third source of income is like a safety net in case the worst happens. Make sure you pick and try one of the making extra money online tips from above and see how you get on. I would love to hear some progress feedback in the comments. |
There are about 1,500 casinos within the United States. The total revenue for the gambling industry in the United States each year is about $40 billion. This means that if all casinos profited equally, they would make, on average, $26,666,666 annually. When divided by the 365 days in a year, the result is about $73,000 each day. The size of the online casino market is roughly $40 billion or $50 billion a year. That’s about $4 billion a month. If we take the number of online casinos in operation, and divide that $4 billion by the number of online casinos in operation, we’ll have an estimate of how much an average online casino makes. It varies widely from property to property, as does the "average" for the area based upon what you include in the statistical universe. In example, in the fourth quarter of 2006, Wynn averaged a "win" of $256 per machine per day, while Fitzgerald's was at $81 per machine daily. The last figure I saw for Clark County was an average of some $145 per machine per day (year-end 2005 I believe), but Net Income at Major Las Vegas Strip Casinos Soars 191 Percent in Latest Fiscal Year. Posted on: January 15, 2018, 07:00h. Last updated on: January 15, 2018, 04:39h. If a casino has only 1,000 gaming machines, it can turn a $5 million daily profit just by retaining an average $1000 per machine. According to a 2015 Las Vegas Sun article , about 40 million people visited Las Vegas on an annual basis at that time. Gaming Casino Statistics: Data: Total number of commercial casinos in the U.S. 462: Number of states that do not allow gambling: 2: Number of states that allow all types of gambling: 3: Number of jobs provided by commercial casinos: 354,000: Annual state tax revenue generated by commercial casinos: $5,200,000,000 We look at the latest Global Gambling Statistics: Comparing revenue, popular games & personal data to discover the world's best Gambling nations in 2021. Discover all statistics and facts on the casino and gambling industry now on statista.com! Try our corporate solution for free! (212) 419-8286. [email protected]. Of people who gambled, the average gambling budget for the trip was $580.90., On average, those gamblers gamble 4 hours per day. 68% of the people who gamble play the slot machines most often. There is no one answer to this as every casino is different. I can say that when The Mirage opened in 1989 it was said that the casino had to gross $1 million each day to turn a profit. Back then that was a lot more money than it is today but The
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