I have been at this university for 7 years, and I'm finishing my degree this year. For all the time I've spent here, and for every person I've interacted with, I've NEVER encountered any ACTUAL racism at this university.
For context, I am a very dark-skinned person of very obvious Indian descent. I have joined multiple student organizations, such as foot patrol, the outdoors club, salsa dancing, boxing club and other student clubs that I can't name because they will identify me, one of which I co-founded as a non-western religious organization at the university. For my degree I've had very close interactions with many of my professors. That is to say, I've interacted with hundreds, if not thousands of people at this University, at almost every level (haven't met Jacques Fremont yet, but maybe one day!)
NEVER ONCE have I felt "unsafe" on this campus. NEVER ONCE have I felt like this university "promotes racism". And it's not just me - NONE of my diverse group of friends has felt as though uOttawa is a racist place. This goes from my African friends from Nigeria (whom I love dearly) to my Chinese and Egyptian friends (who I've known for years as well) to all the other Indians I know. On the contrary, myself and all of my friends, brown or black, not only feel accepted at this University, we feel WELCOME. We do NOT feel that this university is a racist place! Not one BIPOC I know has ever said they felt different due to their race, besides by the clumsily-asked but well-meaning question like "so where are you from?" And don't get me wrong - institutional racism is REAL. But NOT in the way the UOSU is trying to spin it.
Something has to be done. To constantly slander this university as unsafe and racist is not just wrong - its dangerous. It makes real racism harder to talk about. It promotes a skewed idea of "racial violence" that makes any innocuous statement capable of ruining a person's reputation. And when people call everything racism, it takes away the entire meaning. It devalues real experiences. I've been called "paki" many times before. I've had someone threaten to lynch me (yes, really!) calling me a "sh*tskin sandn****r" for talking to his girl. That is appalling, and dangerous. That is real racism. Handcuffing a black student for skateboarding while white students ride on by is real racism. Appointing a BLACK leader to the Anti-Racism Committee without consulting the UOSU beforehand is not racism. It's the UOSU attempting to use "the fight against institutional racism" as a power grab.
The very large majority of BIPOC I know think the UOSU is corrupt and a joke, and that the actions they're taking to "defend against racism" are a complete waste of student dollars. We are tired of being told that we live in a dangerous, racist, evil institution. There are real things worth fighting for - improving the quality of our abysmal online education, for example - that should be taking the forefront. Throwing away our money like this is wasteful and dangerous.
submitted by position proof IPO and Shitron I guess to start off Ill preface with the Shitron and Jumia IPO dilemma. Andrew Left is a short seller being used a signal for short and distort attacks that he may be in cohorts with, with other funds. The idea of him being a single individual with poor grammatical prowess is a front. Based on borrow fees it is likely Left and friends shorted at IPO with possession of information that he gained either through corroboration with others, purchased, etc. He released the hit piece that I summarize and comment on below. That hit piece took JMIA from $50 to $2. The reason for such a violent decline is multifactored, that derives from the Citron report, legitimate financial struggles, and lastly (but just as important) is just how low the JMIA float is. They IPO’d with just 13 Million shares. A short and distort attack on a stock that will inherently already be volatile, is what did JMIA in. There were not enough shares to go around, making it easier to manipulate. Coincidentally (or not) it was one of the first plays on Citrons new hedge fund. Jumia did have a recent dilution, but they still sit as one of the lowest multi-billion-dollar companies in the market in regards to share float. It puts them along the lines of SEB and BRKA. To put things in perspective the float of your favorite meme stock (e.g., QS, NIO, etc. is anywhere from 10 to 200 times larger).
https://imgur.com/a/gXRAeYS
In summary of the report Shitron and Co. claimed the following
Securities Fraud and Smoking Gun Accuses JMIA of wanted to do what every other IPO is interested in which is raising funds and allowing original investors to exit. The modus operandi of Rocket Internet is to start these startups and exit early on them. The MTN exit was likely related to debt reduction as around that time they were ordered to pay over $1B USD in fines to Nigeria. They also tried to tack on the sale of Konga by Naspers, that it being a 90% loss is a signal. This is actually not true as the sale was undisclosed, there is NO source that this was what was lost. However, if we assume it’s true Naspers a $90B dollar company lost less than $80 million on Konga, based on its total investments.
http://www.chinagoabroad.com/en/article/r20-billion-jumia-ipo-could-help-mtn-reduce-debt-burden They claim to present “some of many MATERIAL DISCREPANCIES”, which we can assume what is presented is the WORST discrepancy that exists: Claimed that the 20%-30% discrepancy in users in filings is fraud: This statement was unsourced with a link, claiming it came from an “anonymous” source. Realistically the data was separated by over a span of 6 months (or two quarters). Since being listed and reporting users this has been the average growth in users falling in line with the alleged discrepancy in user data. There has also been commentary that this is more of a reporting issue in terms of differing definition of sellers/merchants.
High returns, failed deliveries, and cancellations: The return rate of 14% is actually not that high. Retail products at the consumer level have high return rates. The failed delivery rate is a result of the cash system that is employed in some communities. It requires a person to person confirmation, lack of communication results in a high number of failed deliveries. He later mentions this and sources the SEC document that this also results in financial losses in terms of delivery payment theft, but doesn’t mention that literally directly after that statement, that the issue has been corrected with the development of a payment processor.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/10/growing-online-sales-means-more-returns-and-trash-for-landfills.html History of fraud in Nigeria The source on this is an odd one, but regardless of validity, the amount allegedly stolen was small ($4m) and neither employee is still employed. The stock market is filled with companies that are thriving with past, present, and future reports of fraud at significantly higher magnitudes.
In terms of the sketchy sale to Jeremy hondra, I cannot find a source on it, not even the quotes. So, I can’t comment on it in-depth, but I will say that “$1” business sales are not unheard of. It's likely those businesses were losing significantly more than $3m a year and JUMIA and its other investors thought it was worthwhile to bring back, or it was a part of whatever agreement existed between the two.
Lack of audit The stock was underwritten by JP Morgan and others, it would be in their financial interest that everything checks out with JMIA. Shitron implies in their statements that the alleged Nigerians under Ernst and Young (EY) can’t perform an audit. In the same document EY says they conduct audits to the standard of the “Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (United States) (PCAOB) and are required to be independent with respect to the Company in accordance with the U.S. federal securities laws and the applicable rules and regulations of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the PCAOB… Those standards require that we plan and perform the audit to obtain reasonable assurance about whether the financial statements are free of material misstatement, whether due to error or fraud.
They go on to say that
“As part of our audits we are required to obtain an understanding of internal control over
financial reporting but not for the purpose of expressing an opinion on the effectiveness of the Company’s internal control. Our audits included performing procedures to assess the risks of material misstatement of the
financial statements, whether due to error or fraud, and performing procedures that respond to those risks. Such procedures included examining, on a test basis, evidence regarding the amounts and disclosures in the financial statements. Our audits also included evaluating the accounting principles used and significant estimates made by management, as well as evaluating the overall presentation of the financial statements. We believe that our audits provide a reasonable basis for our opinion.”
The report makes it seem like it's an unaudited business. The source link doesn’t even take you to the right page. Either way audits of Jumia are currently available.
https://www.annualreports.com/HostedData/AnnualReports/PDF/NYSE\_JMIA\_2019.pdf Long Perspective With that being said Andrew Left and friends recently reversed their opinion and gave it a $100 price target. Some say it is genuine others think it's just to double dip and short it again. I personally don’t give a fuck what his intentions are. In the short term, it’s a part of what caused Octobers the run-up, in the long run, “stonks only go up”. But more seriously, citron’s value is using his career clout to acquire information, and strategically short these companies. Its not really in his MO to change opinions publicly unless he wants that information to be publicly held. In the sense that he wants the public to know and as a trader you understand that’s that what he wants, but I never really think past that.
As for JMIA I’m going to save the talk on “African Amazon”, especially considering amazon income is from being a cloud computing company more than it is a retail store. Also, while I disagree with Citron’s allegations, I do agree with the theme that Jumia is dysfunctional. But I’ve only ever made money off dysfunction, and the dysfunction of Jumia is just a reflection of Nigeria and not JUMIA the company. In fact, I take Jumia’s ability to function in Nigeria as a positive sign. While they’ve hemorrhaged money in the past and continue to do so they are on the path to profitability, with EPS increasing quarter after quarter, and little long term and short-term debt. The value of Jumia has been linked to the expected growth of Nigeria but I have zero hope in Nigeria. The value of Jumia will actually be in its expansion in east and north Arica. Amazon has already in the region of North Africa with its buyout of souq. Net Income for Jumia is still increasing YoY in these regions as well with increased usage of Jumia’s payment processor. Online retail shopping will increase with increasing global access to the internet, especially with the maturation of starlink. The processor and logistics is also where I see the growth occurring especially if both services break away from being a Jumia exclusive, and becomes involved in some of the industrializations of parts of Africa. They have an upcoming earnings report Feb 9th that I believe it’ll hit ATH around said date. Over the past few months, institutions have been buying it heavily prior to the earnings. Part of the anticipation is increased adoption of JumiaPay under covid.
https://fintel.io/so/us/jmia submitted by Jumia (JMIA) is an African tech company which operates an e-commerce marketplace and an online payment platform. People have tried to frame it as “the next Amazon” or “the Amazon of Africa,” but this stock is the definition of a Nigerian scam. It has tanked since IPO due to continued losses and fraud allegations which it basically admitted were true, but is recently pumping again due to its earnings call upcoming on November 10th in a pattern that mirrors almost exactly what happened around its last earnings call in August 2020.
Here’s why it’s an easy short—
A) Clear pattern of pump and dump before earnings along with a history of fraud Insane amounts of call buying from Robinhood idiots who think this company is African Amazon pumped this stock up > $20/sh before the last earnings report, and that pattern is repeating today, with the stock up 120% since October 1. Last I checked, the put/call ratio was like .5 or something, which is insane. Last time, a horrible earnings report crushed the stock, taking away all of the gains from the runup, and this is likely to happen again for reasons I will continue to detail below.
(This is a bit autistic because TA/chart reading is bullshit, but the picture so far is copying exactly what happened last time-- huge spike, starts to dump, dead cat bounce that doesnt quite reach full peak (this is where we are), massive dump during earnings)
Additionally, Citron Research (lol) has come out with a $100 price target (lmfao) on the stock, parroting the simplistic narrative of “the next Amazon” that appeals to these stupid Robintwats. This is especially hilarious because Citron was one of the first to call out “the company during its first post-IPO earnings report in 2019, with claims of fraud and “material discrepancies” in its S1 filing. Just a few months later Jumia disclosed it had wrongly inflated its order volume by around $17.5 million due to some fraudulent orders, even though executives stated they had no impact on financial statements.”
(for context, this was about 5% of their sales in that quarter, although it probably ran deeper than what they admitted— Citron claimed 20-30% inflation initially)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/korihale/2020/04/23/jumia-africas-failed-unicorn-is-hemorrhaging-millions/?sh=56268a5764e4 It’s pretty obvious that Citron is pumping the stock to enter a short position at higher prices, which is a tactic they’ve used before (look at RVLV they pumped its IPO)— inversing Citron has been a super profitable strategy for me over the years (especially shopify) and there's no reason to doubt this will continue.
B) Unsound business model in the long term Supply chain generally sucks, which makes e-commerce unprofitable even though its growing Unreliable postal service and lack of formalized addresses, no large transportation companies that have optimized costs and have large last mile delivery systems (aka UPS/FedEx), difficulty and extra costs like tax/tariff for cross-border transactions, largely underbanked population so cash on delivery is main payment system (even JumiaPay is only used on 35% of orders on Jumia platform).
That’s why the company has been consistently losing money on every order. Because of these losses, they will need to raise capital again within the next year to continue operating (less than 1y of working capital left based on its current cash burn) —> this means share issuances and further dilution at best, bankruptcy at worst.
You have to be able to sustain massive losses to continue to grow in the African e-commerce market— Jumia is too small, and with its history of fraud will never be able to get the capital it needs to dominate and become the AMZN/MELI of Africa. More likely is that 10 years later when Africa is more developed and e-commerce is more profitable (or at least less unprofitable), Amazon itself and Alibaba will takeover.
The current addressable market is not as large as you think Only high income/upper middle income urban citizens who have access to bank accounts can currently be served, and due to income inequality and the rural/urban divide in Africa, this is not that many people.
Because of the large amount of defective products/counterfeits sold in Africa through Chinese drop-shipping scams, these consumers often like to touch products and see them/pay for them in person. This requires more fulfillment costs and less use of Jumia payment platform.
Additionally, there has been no COVID bump in Africa like every other e-commerce company had this year— in fact, GMV (total value of goods bought on platform) dropped 13% YoY last quarter and their guidance saw “continued softness” due to COVID’s economic impact.
Because of the shitty supply chain and lack of rapid growth, Jumia has been exiting more countries in Africa than it has been entering (left Tanzania, Cameroon, Rwanda, Congo, Gabon, etc) as it just can’t grow enough to justify losing as much money as it does. This is also tough for the only bright spot in the business, which is the fast growing JumiaPay. There are tons of competing payment platforms in Africa and in order to scale and compete against them, JumiaPay needs the networks effects from a successful e-commerce platform, which is not likely to materialize.
Quarterly results on November 10 will catalyze the dump just like it did back in August, because the numbers will continue to show that Jumia is not growing all that fast (revenue/GMV may even drop again), and it is losing a lot of money while doing so.
C) Massive unrest in major market will affect future guidance Jumia’s biggest market is Nigeria. If you haven’t been reading the news, throughout October, there has been massive unrest in the country due to protests against police violence. Protestors blocked streets and destroyed buildings, troops were deployed and fired on people, and curfews were imposed.
This unrest likely delayed fulfillment of many orders, caused cancellations, and lowered economic activity/demand. The company will have to disclose how results have been affected in the upcoming earnings call guidance, which will be another reason the stock will sell off.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/nigeria-protests-whats-happening-and-why-are-people-demonstrating-11603277989?mod=rsswn TL;DR: puts on Nigerian scams
My recommendation: Use today’s exceptionally green day to buy cheap put options on JMIA in preparation for the inevitable dump
Positions: JMIA puts, 9-12 strikes— 9/10 are the most liquid, 12+ is safer though
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